Who wins this ppr dynasty trade? A) Saquan Barkley Or B) Josh Downs, a 2027 1st and a 2025 2.02

A

A wins. B has to wait 2 years to get some benifit and has no idea where this pick will fall. I don't know why anyone would take a pick that far out unless you are just trying to make room on your roster and will take anything before cutting the player.

@GTuck if you are trading Barkley away, I only like the move if you get out from under most or ideally all your valuable “sunsetting” vets.

You just lose in that scenario. There’s absolutely no benefit of coming in 5th place

So you think that someone will cave and pay when they are trying to set themselves apart at the end of the season? At what point do you say that you have waited too long?

I know that no one in my league would pay 3 1sts, but that seems to be the value that you guys have him at.

What’s being offered here, to me, is essentially 2 current 2nds and a 3rd. Do you think that’s Barkley’s value?

However I really like the ‘27 class. Yes it’s two years away, but if I’m moving Barkley I want to backload my picks to control my placement in the league, no?

Yeah I think that’s sound logic, just feels like there is a point where you are leveon bell holding out for a contract and then you burn yourself

Also I very much value getting the 1.01 of the ‘26 draft.. i view it as a very top heavy class, and the longer into the season you hold your assets, the more difficult it will be to tank.

I have always been willing to lose value on a player to get out ahead of my league to make sure that a deal gets done. Like a guy in my league this past year waited till the deadline and all the contenders had already made moves. So the demand was gone, I think that would be worse than not getting full value for a player.

I’ve actually done some calculations on this using similar equations to how people invest in rl. The end result is a roughly 6-10 pick drop in value per year. Where in that range depends on some qualitative variables. Like, for instance, a first would be around 7-8 because it has a high floor and is guaranteed to at least have a certain amount of value. How you value 27 draft might be another variable to account for. Being able to reasonably project where that lock will be may impact it as well (or at least impact where you devalue it from). Things like that

Yeah I see your point. So how would the OP offer need to be chanced for you to move Barkley?

It is a bit low, and we are very early

Logic for me just assumed that this player is stuck in limbo and has 0 leverage, so losing value is unavoidable if the entire league also recognizes that

My league is full of sickos and negations are intense. So that bias is coming through with my original answer

I use current draft cap to define all players and future prospects. Not because I think it perfectly embodies the assets, but because it gives me an objective currency that I can link all assets to to allow me to compare apples to apples

In fact, this topic right here is entirely why I even come to these forums

Bastards will even get in the group chat and lobby for the idea that for example the team moving Barkley has no choice but to do so.

That’s why patience is necessary

That’s where time-dependent fluctuations come into play

It’s also why vets are easier to sell right before the season or early in the season, because people take off their long term planning cap and start looking to win

Yeah it’s certainly a fine line.. cause as I stated before, say you upgrade that 2nd to a mid 1st…but you don’t get the trade done until week 9-10. Not moving Barkley likely made your ‘26 pick several spots worse… so did you really upgrade that early 2nd to a mid 1st? The actual value in waiting isn’t necessarily reflected fully in the trade